How I read market cycles
I'm foremost an investor and student of price. I think about markets with a cycles framework — measuring them from low to low, across timeframes — which requires the patience to act only when the structure confirms.
Low to low
A cycle is measured from one major low to the next: advance, peak, decline, low. Knowing where you are in that sequence matters more than any forecast.
Every timeframe at once
Daily, weekly, and multi-year cycles are read together. A daily signal means one thing inside a rising yearly cycle and the opposite inside a failing one — context decides.
Price confirms, opinions don't
A low isn't a low until price proves it. I act on confirmation, not anticipation — strict structural rules that take the ego out of the trade.
Deep declines are the opportunity
The best entries in market history were moments of maximum discomfort. The framework exists to make meaningful selloffs buyable — with sizing and stops decided in advance.
Calls I publish in public, with the scorecard attached
Opinions about markets are cheap; dated calls with a public record aren't. Broken Stocks is where I put mine — the names in structural decline every night, and the handful I think have finished falling. Both sides get measured against what actually happened.
The Broken List, and what happened after
Every U.S. stock down 20%+ from its 52-week high, tiered Red, Amber, Watch and refreshed nightly. Since May 2026 every scan is kept in an append-only panel, so the list is testable: 76% of the 2,777 names flagged at first capture were still broken 104 days later, in a market that rose 4%. Published as observed fact, not a forecast.
Five household names that stopped falling
The other half of the question. Businesses that fell 35–70% over a year or more, washed out the first buyers, and have now confirmed a low on the monthly chart. Named in public on a fixed date, baselined at that day's close, frozen — no swaps — and scored one year later against the S&P 500.